
Data-driven selections for Australian racing
Every morning, the model analyses Australian thoroughbred races using publicly available form data and Betfair win odds captured at 7:30am AWST. All selections are locked from that morning snapshot so they do not change later when prices move.
Selections are for today's racing only. Future tips are not generated or posted in advance.
Best Plays are up to three of the day's strongest favourites. To qualify, a runner must be the favourite in its race with at least a 30% chance in the market, pay at least $1.50, and also rate among the top three in the race on our form rating, so the form backs the market up. The three with the highest chance are published.
We tested our selections against more than 1,000 races. The market's price turned out to be a better guide to a horse's chance than our form rating, and horses the form rated well above their price won less often, not more. So we no longer claim to find horses the market has underrated. Each runner's chance is the chance the market gives it (with the bookmaker's margin taken out), and the form rating is used as a check.
Early in the morning some Betfair markets haven't had much money through them yet. For those races the Ladbrokes fixed-odds market is used instead, and every play shows which price it was judged on, plus the Ladbrokes price.
On a quiet day fewer than three may qualify, and we publish fewer rather than fill the card with weaker picks.
A Form Standout is a horse our form rating has as the clear best chance in its race, while the Betfair market has it as only the 2nd, 3rd or 4th favourite.
To qualify it must be priced between $3 and $8, have at least a 20% chance on the form rating, and come from a race whose Betfair market passes our quality checks. Races that already have a Best Play are skipped.
Across the day, the three standouts the form rates furthest above the market are selected. They are locked at 7:30am AWST and recorded in their own tracker.
The Roughie is one longer-priced runner a day, between $8 and $20, that our form rating still ranks among the top three chances in its race.
From every qualifying runner, the one with the highest estimated winning chance is selected. It will win less often than the other plays, but pays much more when it does. It is locked at 7:30am AWST and has its own tracker.
Feature Races give a pick for every race at the day's main meeting. The feature meeting is the leading metropolitan track racing that day (for example Flemington, Randwick, Caulfield or Rosehill on a Saturday); on days without a metropolitan meeting, the meeting with the most races is used.
In each race, the pick is the runner with the highest estimated winning chance, at any price. Where a race also has a Best Play, the Feature pick is that same horse.
Every Feature pick carries a confidence label. Strong: a clear top chance of 35% or more, at least 10 points ahead of the next runner, and the form rating's top pick. Solid: at least a 25% chance and a top-two runner on form. Lean: an open race without a standout. The Feature Races tracker shows the results for each label separately.
When one of Australia's big races is run - around 165 of them across every state and territory, from the Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, The Everest and Golden Slipper to the Stradbroke, Railway Stakes, Adelaide Cup, Hobart Cup, Canberra Cup and Darwin Cup - we pick the winner. The pick is the runner with the highest chance in the market, at any price, and we also name the two main dangers.
Big Race picks carry the same Strong / Solid / Lean confidence label as Feature Races (big fields mean most are Lean or Solid), are locked at 7:30am AWST on race day and have their own tracker. Where the race also has a Best Play or Feature pick, it is always the same horse.
The Multi is two legs from two different races: the two strongest favourites of the day, each the most likely winner of its race with at least a 35% chance in the market.
The combined win odds multiply the captured odds of both legs, and the estimated multi probability multiplies their estimated chances. Because both legs must win, the Multi's chance is always lower than either leg's. (Until 15 October 2026 the Multi had three legs.)
All selections are permanently recorded from the morning snapshot. Results, strike rates and placings are updated in the separate trackers, which anyone can view once each race has been run.
Members can use the date selector to review previous days and confirm every published result. Scratched and void selections remain visible but are excluded from completed-selection strike rates. Racing always carries risk, and no selection or Multi is guaranteed.
For adults 18+ only. Information and entertainment only; no result is guaranteed.